Friday, March 27, 2009
Resurgence.....
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Dance of Democracy 2
So we are racing ahead in time.As elections are coming closer.we see the dance party stronger..the lions ,tigers and mice are all coming out of their hiding places to dance to the tunes of power.Shame is becoming shameless and power more addictful than ever.
The week so far has shown that we might be on a way of a strong hung assembly and at the mercy of the Mayawatis and Sharad Pawars of the day.Strange thing about India is we have leaders but no body to lead..every person thinks he is capable of leading the nation..nobody wants to be a follower.Following is just so much out of fashion.PEople like Sharad power are already affirming their long known desire of becoming the PM and playing the king maker should the need so arise
So we have seen all sorts of drama in this musical till now.A gandhi scion trying to follow his fathers footsteps and invoking hindu wrath for muslims and then in typical bollywood style accusing tapes to be doctored.We saw the old dance for power when Sharad YAdav invoked the MArath CM thinng..and ofcourse howcan we forget the power plays going on everywhere....congress was known to fall to lowest level possible to grab power but gues what "the party with difference" is no different now...for the first time perhaops the party of indifference..its aligning itself with every possible coalation to grab power.For the first time perhaps BJP would be fighting elections without an ideological framework to satisfy the whims of an old guard who can lift the weights in a gym to shw that he is "youthful" and can lead the country in 21st century.
So as we see we are almost complete with the backstage preperation of this drama..tickets have ben allocated..bookies made candidates...infighting started..price of MP's decided and soon we would have the real thing started ..so keep following this column to know more abt this greatest drama enacted evcery five years on earth......for fact is much more stranger than fiction....
Happy electioning :)
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Dance Of Democracy-1
Important as they are,the dance of democracy has already started.We are living in an era of crony politics where everything from election comissoins to voters can be bought or sold.The appointment of Naveen Chawla as the CEC for admnistering the current elections is nothing more than the murder of our democratic ideals and rape of the indian polity and constitution.Sure enough Congress has never hidden its contempt for democracy.It has shrouded itself in dynastic politics for a long time.Names are given more importance than talent.Right from election of Indira to rajiv and then entry of Sonia ..congress has mocked at the Indian voter.The emergency..and frequent use of president's rule by congress for petty political gains has already put us atleast 50 years back..and now Congress does another low by appointing a pro Congress officer to rig General Elections 2009 in its favour.Were 50 years of rule not enough for the Gandhi-Nehru family that they had to do this to offer a perfect platform for their scion--Rahul.
The problem is not that Naveen chawla..who has been in controversy for being pro congress throughout his career,could rig the elections but the fact that such an election could set a bad precedent for future with governments manipulting ,the once prestigious and neutral election comssion for electoral gains.The results could be disastorous..with eventual weakening of democratic ideals.Infact Election comission was one of the last bapstons in which Indian public entrusted their faith after faliure of judicial and executive systems of the state.If seeing judges being bribed on national television was not enough we now have an open manipulation of election comssion.
Logic defies the fact that why did the government decide to continue with Chawla after the majopr opposition party as wella s the current CEC raised hue and cry over his neutrality .Even if we give Chawla the ebnefit of doubt ,still the indian eections are worth much more than the career of a beuraucrate shrouded in controversy.
Well as I said the dance of democracy has started..and still much more awaits us.Faxt is stranger than fiction and you see this no better than here..welcome to Indian Democracy.Politicians,criminals,industrialists,moey bags,government officials have all started dancing to the tune of power..nay they are intoxicated..the question can the Indian public despite all odds see this dance/and deliver a government which not only uphoalds our moral and democratic ideals but would be able to not only pull us but the word out of the murky waters where we sail now.If we cant ,we dont ahve any right to crib as we always do..
Thursday, March 5, 2009
The Followup to short it
So we are finally going down with full steam,even the rate cuts failed to halt the downward spike.So where are we headed,thats the million dollar question everybody's asking.And the answer is we dont know..and u dont need to know that in order to earn ur bread and butter in markets.We just need to be with the major trend which is indeed downwards...but its easier said than done..shorting shares near lows..most public wud rather think of buying ...and thats why most people lose in markets.
Anyway as far as my calculations go based on 1929 model,I feel we cant have the bottoming out of market until DOW hits 5800..and after that we might consolidate around 2800-3000 levels ..but then markets exaggerate for a longer time than sanity would let us believe.
For tomorrows trading we could expect some short covering by the shorts who had initiated new position this week but overall the bearish forces seem so strong that I dont think it would impact markets in a major manner.So if you have the guts I still feel u have time to enter and make new shorts.....
Happy Trading
Monday, March 2, 2009
Short it....
So there a strong bear run and the stocks that look weakest would offer the least resistance.My take is to trade on NIFTY puts and chota NIFTY if you dont have any shorts till now.RIL,looks weak and midcaps will fall the most because most blue chips will start trading at low prices and offer excellent valuations.
So we are once again in a bear run and one thing to remember in a bear run is to remain bearish always.So hold your positions tight till market starts loosing steam and I am looking atleast another 1000 pts fall on DOW before I strt booking profits.Why 1000pts? Well we are in a depression...history repeats and it shows no better than on Wall Street.Obama is doing the same mistakes that American Presidents did in the past.Protectionism,traiffs etc all this will put the economy deep in recession and so can now easily compare the stock market movements during 1929 depression and that of now.
During 1929 the DoW fell by about 89% of its peak..considering the same the markets should touch abot 4800..taking some measures like injection of liquidity we can expect DOW to show some resistance at 5800.Another indicator I am looking at is historical grain prices..but I am still working on that and would keep you updated as soon as I complete..if anybody has historical data regarding wheat prices during 1929-1933 please maile me @trehan.sumeet1@gmail.com
So till that time hyappy trading...:)