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Thursday, January 29, 2009

So the Dow crashed again ,I always got this feel that we are in a midist of a bear rally and atleast till June when banks start softening lending rates and increase their risk appetite the bears will hold the upper hand.Anyways in all this chaos one big question that all of us are wonderisng is :Will this crisis result in the inevitable change.The principle of yin and yang says whatever goes up must come down.So will US finally be displaced by China or India or Russia as a world leader
In my view time has come for the change.As they say no trader can stop the market from going where its headed.Similarly US cant stop the natural process for change.The first indicator of change ,I feel is going to the inevitable fall of the greenback.Just why USD remains an international curency is beyond reckoning.US stopped being a manufacturer long ago,and it can be widely argued if its the leading service provider in the world.Most of the services provided by US companies are offshored to India and US.Infact without making any significant contribution to world production US is like the proverbial king whom the subjects pay homage for protection.That the USD remains an international currency is because of mainly two reasons:
The reluctance of oil producing counteries to stick to USD for oil trading
The psychological factors:many counteries fear Iraq type invasion if they switch to Euro or JPY
However recent developments make me believe that both above factors will not support USD .For one the fall in oil prices and increased need of Arab world for articles from around the world will lead to increased pressure for change to some currency whose mother country produce worthwhile.Secondly America is still reeling under the after effects of Bush's Iraq adventure and is in no position for launching another war.So fundamentally there is little to support USD in world markets.Insted of supporting their counteries by producing and gifting goods to US for free ,counteries around the world could do better by increasing trade among themselves,failing which their would be no end to current crisis,
Even technically USD is looking weak,it seems to have lost steam and at end its fall look inevitable....Perhaps i shd call my broker and short USD

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