Trading The Nifty

As I promised this blog is just not going to be about pilitics and economics alone,infact I am gong to write here whatever comes to my mind.(I am sorry if any reader is disappointed by my not sticking to a particular topic ,but then this is the beauty of "The Other Way")

Anyways lets get to the point..Dows breaking again after yesterdays of about 270 points and is running back to 1997 lows as I write this blog.Obama has clearly appointed the markets with not making any concrete announcements.Indecision is worse than decison and markets who better to teach you that the markets.To me if Dow doesnt manage to pull back today,it is nothing more than the tape shouting to short the NIFTY.Indian markets have stood firm till now but when everythings falling it would be difficult for markets to hold the head high.

The evaluations look fantastic at this time,with many companies being undervalued..this might be the right time to enter the markets if you have a longer term prespective atleast 2 years ,but then the job of a speculator is different than that of an investor,who is concerned mainly with ensuring a constant return on his monies while a speculator want to earn quicker profit by following the trends of the market.So far this is concerned ,NIFTY is looking very weak if it breaks the 2600 level.Therfore if NIFTy breaks 2600 we might see the last downside of this bear run...the last exaggeration which is so characterstics of bulls and bear cycles.Yes markets exaggerate,but for a speculator no price is too high to buy and no low too sell
At the same time if NIFTY returns back from these levels and breaks 2800 tomm. I would take it as a confirmation of bottoming out of the market.At the macro economic level,the interest rates seem to be softening and a good agricultural output might be able to stimulate demand but for rest nothing is too positive.Bewre the bottoming out of market does not indicate that the bull run has started.For there would be large consolidation phase when markets would remain range bound and only when macro ecomo,ic fundamentals improve and their is "money" to be diverted in the markets that a bull phase would actually start.Meanwhile either play in range or stay outside..Happy trading

So the Dow crashed again ,I always got this feel that we are in a midist of a bear rally and atleast till June when banks start softening lending rates and increase their risk appetite the bears will hold the upper hand.Anyways in all this chaos one big question that all of us are wonderisng is :Will this crisis result in the inevitable change.The principle of yin and yang says whatever goes up must come down.So will US finally be displaced by China or India or Russia as a world leader
In my view time has come for the change.As they say no trader can stop the market from going where its headed.Similarly US cant stop the natural process for change.The first indicator of change ,I feel is going to the inevitable fall of the greenback.Just why USD remains an international curency is beyond reckoning.US stopped being a manufacturer long ago,and it can be widely argued if its the leading service provider in the world.Most of the services provided by US companies are offshored to India and US.Infact without making any significant contribution to world production US is like the proverbial king whom the subjects pay homage for protection.That the USD remains an international currency is because of mainly two reasons:
The reluctance of oil producing counteries to stick to USD for oil trading
The psychological factors:many counteries fear Iraq type invasion if they switch to Euro or JPY
However recent developments make me believe that both above factors will not support USD .For one the fall in oil prices and increased need of Arab world for articles from around the world will lead to increased pressure for change to some currency whose mother country produce worthwhile.Secondly America is still reeling under the after effects of Bush's Iraq adventure and is in no position for launching another war.So fundamentally there is little to support USD in world markets.Insted of supporting their counteries by producing and gifting goods to US for free ,counteries around the world could do better by increasing trade among themselves,failing which their would be no end to current crisis,
Even technically USD is looking weak,it seems to have lost steam and at end its fall look inevitable....Perhaps i shd call my broker and short USD